Crude Oil Rises Base Metal Prices Mostly Fall Ferrous Metals Series Generally Rise Coke Up Nearly 2% [Overnight Market]

SMM March 25 News:

In the metals market:

Overnight, domestic market base metals generally fell, with SHFE tin down 0.68%. SHFE copper rose 0.65%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. SHFE lead fell 0.48%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.29%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.21%. Additionally, alumina rose 0.36%.

Overnight, ferrous metals series mostly moved upward, with iron ore up 1.36%, stainless steel down 0.19%, rebar up 0.85%, and HRC up 0.27%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal rose 0.64%, and coke rose 1.98%.

Overnight, LME metals all declined, with LME copper down 0.28%. LME zinc fell 0.29%, LME tin fell 0.67%, LME lead fell 0.1%, and LME aluminum slightly fell. LME nickel fell 0.32%.

Overnight in precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.13%, and COMEX silver rose 0.12%. SHFE gold fell 0.09%, and SHFE silver rose 0.02%.

As of 8:19 am on March 25, overnight closing prices

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Macro front

Domestic:

[Ministry of Finance: Support for Comprehensive Expansion of Domestic Demand and Vigorous Boosting of Consumption] The Ministry of Finance released the 2024 China fiscal policy implementation report. The report proposed that in 2025, fiscal policy should be more proactive, supporting a comprehensive expansion of domestic demand. Vigorously boost consumption. Increase efforts to ensure people's livelihoods and increase residents' income through multiple channels. Promote the implementation of a special action plan to boost consumption, and increase support for trade-in policies for consumer goods. Appropriately raise the basic pension for retirees, and increase the fiscal subsidy standards for basic pensions and basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents. Promote the national comprehensive freight hub chain strengthening and upgrading actions, and the digital transformation and upgrading of road and waterway transportation infrastructure, to reduce logistics costs across society. Actively expand effective investment. Coordinate the use of various government investment funds, focusing on key areas and weak links. Reasonably arrange the issuance of government bonds, accelerate the budget allocation of government bond funds, and form physical work volume as soon as possible. 》Click for details

[PBOC: Conducted 450 billion yuan MLF Operation on March 25 with a 1-year Term] The PBOC announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and better meet the differentiated funding needs of different participants, starting from this month, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) will be conducted using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multi-price winning method. On March 25, 2025 (Tuesday), the People's Bank of China will conduct a 450 billion yuan MLF operation with a 1-year term. 》Click for details

US dollar:

Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 104.31. The market is assessing the latest US tariff policy. The US Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate last week and indicated it would cut interest rates twice this year, each by 25 basis points. The market is now waiting for the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data on Friday, which is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator.

Other currencies:

The January meeting minutes of the Bank of Japan showed there was a risk that price expectations could exceed 2%. Some members expected that even after raising interest rates, real interest rates would remain significantly negative. A BOJ member stated that an interest rate level of around 1% in H2 2025 would be desirable. (Cailian Press)

Macro:

Today, the following data will be released: Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for March, UK's CBI Retail Sales Differential for March, US February Construction Permits Monthly Revision, US February Annualized Total Construction Permits Revision, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and US February Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales Annualized Total.

Additionally, notable events include a speech by Bank of England Governor Bailey; a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Barr on "small business lending"; and an opening address by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams at an event.

Crude oil:

Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.29% and Brent up 1.15%. Oil prices increased due to tariff-related news, but expectations of OPEC maintaining production growth limited the gains.

According to CCTV News, on the 24th, US President Trump posted on social media that any country purchasing oil or natural gas from Venezuela would have to pay a 25% tariff on any trade with the US. The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry issued a statement firmly opposing the US government's 25% secondary tariff on countries trading oil and natural gas with Venezuela.

However, the oil price increase was limited as the US required Chevron to end its oil operations and exports in Venezuela by May 27. The US initially required the company to end related operations within 30 days from March 4. These two measures together reduced some pressure on Chevron while also putting more pressure on other consumers of Venezuelan oil, although it remains uncertain how the US will enforce this tariff.

Market analysts said OPEC+ is likely to stick to its plan to raise oil production for the second consecutive month in May. Four OPEC representatives stated that OPEC+ is likely to stick to its plan to raise oil production for the second consecutive month in May, as oil prices are stable and the alliance plans to force some members to cut production to make up for past overproduction. (Webstock Inc.)